I seems that we are bombarded with experts at every turn anymore. If there is no one to serve as an expert, someone seems to always self appoint themselves. In some cases there are gatherings of experts walking all over each other trying to get to the top of the expert pile. Most of these folks while possibly well meaning or even good hearted generally have no clue what the heck they are talking about or they come across so absorbed in their own self promotion that they are not tolerable.
Case in point #1: I got a notice that a person to whom I have a very casual knowledge of had passed away. Upon following a link to read what happened I found a gaggle of experts on a discussion board that not only knew what happened to him and how it happened, but his life story in many details. The kicker is that the 4 or 5 pages of comments were dominated by three or four people who were telling all the other people they were wrong. The funniest post was were one person commented on the deceased’s connection with Illinois, to whom the lead expert on this fellow admitted he didn’t know he had any ties to Illinois then wanted proof that the commentator knew what he was talking about. Funny to me but I can just imagine how sad it might have been for any of the family members who might have happened upon this mess. I do know the “one” head expert mentioned above in this discussion, he is an expert on everything he talks about, just ask him. He is one of the skid-marks in the underwear of life that we, regrettably, cant dispatch in a burlap bag with a concrete block tied to it over a bridge into the river.
Case in point #2: While I was trying to find some ballistic information online I came across a discussion on how the .17HMR was not suitable as a coyote round and would not kill anything bigger than a prairie dog. Having dispatched coyotes, at range, with my .17HMR I thought that I must hurry out into the fields and tell these coyotes go get up and run along, despite the smell and decay, as they must be mistaken that I had killed them. The expert was using all kinds of “math” and “physics” to show that the .17 lacked the punch and power to take a dog down beyond 50 yards etc so forth at nausea. Despite testimonials and the comments of a real hunting expert (a person acknowledged as knowing what he was talking about), this fellow held to his guns that you needed a big gun to kill coyotes at range. Maybe coyotes in Ohio wear bullet proof vest or their fur is like Kevlar due to difference in their winters or something. Despite this expert, I still dispatch ole wile coyote with a .17HMR at every opportunity.
Case in point #3. I have been bombarded with propaganda to attend a farmer/consultant field day on growing corn and soybeans like a “high yield expert”. I do attend field days, when there is something to learn or there is a topic of interest. Its just part of the learning and educational process that farmers must go through if they are going to compete and stay profitable. That being said this particular field day is a big JOKE. Its put on by a couple of self promoted and self proclaimed experts whom I wouldn’t let on my farm. One half of this Abbot and Costello team I have know and been some what acquainted with for over 10 years through a friend. They are only about the sale and what they are selling today is better than what they sold yesterday. Did I say this was a joke already? What do they know? NOTHING. Most of what they are going to present is either stolen from universities, picked from other companies with similar products or services and other field days or is not proven with independent non biased research and is only being used to end up selling a couple of products that they get kick back for. Yet, with no industry certifications or qualifications, they have set themselves up as experts, and got the backing of people who should know better, on growing high yield crops and are fleecing attendees for big money when its all said and done.
Case in point #4. The University of Illinois Extension. A complete Chinese fire drill of experts who have never “been there or done that” trying to tell the world how much they know about the real world. Nuff said there.
Yes, I have had my fill of experts this year already. That is why I wont be going to any more field days, conferences or meetings other than a very select few for the remainder of the year. That is also why I have assigned junk and spam status to a lot of emails from experts and why I have erased several talk and discussion boards from my internet favorates.
The result of riding myself of so many experts is that my blood pressure is much lower lately.
Trust me, I know what I am talking about…………..
I am speaking today at the BSPC winter meeting. AutoCopter is speaking now, I am on next.
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I spent two days at the Rend Lake Resort for the 2011 Southern Illinois Crop Protection Conference. More accurately I spent two days in a meeting room trying to hold my head up. It wasn’t fun with a head cold.
I really needed to get a head start this year on my CCA credits and not get behind like I did last year. I have also been sick with the flu and running to the hospital to see dad when I could as well. So there is nothing like sitting in a dim lit windowless room on a metal folding chair for eight hours a day heavily medicated. But I survived.
Overall the conference was OK but nothing new that hasn’t been said at the last three of four meetings I have been to. That being said, I have to say that for the most part the overall message from the meeting I got was that “our conclusions are that we need more research before we draw any conclusions”. Fair enough, that’s the mantra of the researcher, to do more research. But you have to give me something more than that to live on between meetings. At the very least the data that was presented was not biased, even if it didn’t match 100% with what I have seen in some instances with field observations.
In a conversation with another attendee, he made the comment that what one presenter said was opposite to what one of the “staff agronomists” has been saying in one of the farm magazines. He was correct, but as I pointed out that the staff agronomist never published his research data, or his analysis of the data he used, to come to the conclusion in the story headline. Matter of fact, I doubt very seriously if they do any replications over many locations. I also pointed out that he and his sidekick are most likely getting a huge kickback to push all the stuff they are testing and saying makes 10-20 bu/ac differences, so they can’t be taken seriously.
I also mentioned that I have stopped taking all but two or three farm magazines anymore for that reason. Between the half-truths of the info that some present to help sell a product, and the lack of timely information getting to the field of others, they are just not relevant sources of agronomic information anymore.
The internet and social media have replaced all but two or three of these publications. And as sad as that seems, they have just about replaced my need to attend CCA type meetings also. With the lack of relevant timely information being disseminated at these meetings, if it weren’t for the CE Credits, in most cases there would be no reason to attend.
At the Illinois Farm Bureau/ FFA Acquaintance Day, speaking on Ag Careers. I had to post a picture of the Benton High School FFA crew in attendance. Mr. Page looks pleased!
Illinois Farm Bureau President Phil Nelson gives the students some closing remarks at the end of the day. Phil did a pretty good job and his comments should have hit home with the crowd.
Sorry for the grainy pictures, taken with my phone inside with the bad lights!
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Just returned from the Illinois Extension Corn and Soybean Classic at Mt Vernon. This is my third meeting this week. Tuesday and Wednesday I was in St Louis attending and speaking at the Farm Futures magazine “Business Summit”.
I want to say a big THANK YOU to Mike Wilson, Arlan Suderman and Wille Vogt for the invite and allowing me to be on the program. I consider it to be a high honor to be able to speak to the “life long learners of Agriculture”, as David Kohl described those in attendance. I think that the Farm Futures Summit is “The” meeting of the year.
Once again it was a great conference with a lot of good information being passed. I always leave the meeting positive, pumped up, and eager for the new year of farming when it is over. The highlight for me, aside from speaking, was the Bear Pit with Kohl, Mike Boehlje and Barry Flichbaugh. It was a fascinating discussion between the three of them on the panel. The historical perspective that Dave, Mike and Barry bring with their comments are unbelievable. I felt sorry for Bryce Knorr and Darrell Dunteman on the stage as they were never able to get a word in edge-wise.
Because I was speaking, I didn’t get to hear some of the conference, but did get to sit in on about 75% of it. Several people have asked for my notes or comments from the meeting so here are a few of the things that struck me from my scribbled notes. Perhaps @daver819 at his blog and @jmackson at his can correct me or contribute any holes in my notes.
Watch China.
Most Ag inputs tied to Oil. You should watch oil.
Profit potential for over $250/ac in corn in 2011. To quote Boehlje “BOOK IT!” You need to be locking in a profit.
Protect yourselves with crop insurance. Again to Quote Boehlje “look at 85% coverage, suck it up and buy it”.
Some farmers operating line might be getting too big for their local community banks to handle.
Commercial real estate financing still a problem.
Interest Rates headed to double digits 2012-2015.
All farmers need a technology buying plan as speed picks up in technology updates
Farmers should consider having 60-90 days cash “on hand” in the event of a volatility caused short term crisis.
Who owns American Debt: Japan, China, Great Britain, “Silk Suits” and IRAN.
Reading is fundamental. But you need to read more than farm magazines. Read things like the Wall Street Journal and the Economist. They will tell you more about things that are getting to ready to happen in Ag, than a story on twin row planting that was written 2 months ago.
60 percent of the worlds fertilizer production takes place in militarily or politically sensitive areas of the world. Think about that for a while.
China is buying as much rare earth minerals as it can.
Fertilizer prices are still going to follow commodity prices for the most part.
Volatility is high. Locking in profit margins is going to be critical.
Grain charts indicate we may be close to the high.
China and India must maintain 8-10 percent growth rates to keep commodity prices bullish.
Grain Stocks are at 15 year low. Weather has the greatest impact.
Game Changers for AG: Asia/China, ethanol, low value of the dollar, weather and health of livestock industry.
Current Ag Land investors: 70% traditional investors, 15% 70-90 yr olds, 15% silk suits.
Top 25% making greater than 10% margin. Lowest 25% making less than 1%.
Our economy is still fragile, but AG is the bright spot. That could all change pretty fast.
And the Championship Farm must have a good Offense, Defense and Special Teams. (lock in profit, risk management and manage interest rates –from Kohl)
That is all I have for right now, more will come to me as I decompress and filter my notes. But if you get a chance yet this winter and can get to a meeting with Dr’s Kohl, Boehlje or Flichbaugh, DO IT. Your mind will be expanded and your heart renewed for Agriculture.
Thanks Farm Futures, again.
Home from Farm Futures Management Summit. Another great day. David Kohl with three hours of great material, so much that it will take a day or so to filter it all out before I can make a post. Arlan Suderman gave a great market outlook that again is just amazing in detail.
But, before I can get a good post done on this meeting, it’s off to the Corn and Soybean Classic at Mt Vernon. CCA credits tomorrow.
What an awesome day of of the Farm Futures Summit. This has to be the premier meeting of this type in the nation. I and am not saying that because I was speaking there today.
We just finished up the night with David Kohl, Barry Flichbaugh and Mike Boehlje in the Bear Pit, a question and answer session that will make your head spin. The historical perspective they bring to the meeting along with their analysis and comments are incredible. I wish I could strive to be that competent and thorough in my studies of topics I am interested in.
Tired with lots of stuff running around in my head…………but ready for tomorrow and more of David Kohl, Wilie Vogt, Bryce Knorr and Arlan Suderman.
A more complete report later………..
Over the last 20 years I have had held some different professional certifications and memberships. Those include certifications as a Certified Crop Advisor (CCA), Certified Professional Agronomist (CPAg) and a NRCS Technical Service Provider (TSP) among others. Holding these certifications and memberships costs a lot of money. Not in the actual fee of membership, but in the different requirements for keeping the certifications current.
In the not-so-distant past I let my TSP go. The amount of time and hoops to jump through for a certification and re- certifications became ridiculous for something that is pretty much useless to me and those whom I consult with. It became evident to me that the NRCS really did not want non-government professionals doing their job. Plus, they don’t pay near enough on those jobs to justify doing them. I know others think differently, but as with all things governmental, life is too short for that much red tape.
The CCA is basically a way of stating that a fertilizer dealer knows what they are doing. I am not a fertilizer dealer, nor do I ever plan on being one at this time. But making fertility recommendations is something I do, so I thought it wise to get that certification. I have never used it for anything, nor have I had to. Being certified now for 15 years, I am wondering why I go and pay for meetings to keep it current when the topics of the meetings are not current. These meetings are not cheap when you figure in business time lost, meal and travel expenses, plus the actual cost of the meeting. In some cases it figures out to be over $100/hr credit.
The CPAg is something I am very proud of. I think it is a true certification for an agronomist. A certification that allows one to be an agronomist and also specialize in a particular discipline without having to get credits in areas that you don’t deal with. The CPAg is more than just a test and code of ethics like the CCA. The certification looks at the entire person, their work experience, academic history and study as well as professional references that one knows what they are doing. You must take the CCA exam as well, but that is a minor part of the CPAg certification.
This past year it has been difficult to get CCA credits in this part of Illinois. I have spent a lot of time on line taking tests for credits. In Illinois all the CCA meetings with approved credits take place up north, it would seem, and none are very well advertized, so that one can make arrangements to get to one. You either know where a meeting is or you don’t. I have visited the Illinois CCA website numerous times but they don’t seem to keep it current and most of the meetings listed were held in 2008 and 2009. And I don’t seem to be on any mailing list to get newsletters for some reason. I don’t even get the “official” CCA magazine anymore even after repeated attempts to register for it online.
So maybe I am out of the loop……………..if I am, then that explains my lack of enthusiasm for the CCA anymore. And if I am in the loop and this lack of communication to the CCA’s from the state is normal then maybe that explains my lack of enthusiasm for the CCA anymore.
Don’t forget you can hear the entire presentation at the 2011 Farm Futures Management Summit Jan 4th and 5th in St Louis. Register Here.
I recently purchased the MAGPUL DVD set The Art of the Tactical Carbine. For those of us who are fans of the black rifle I would highly recommend it for any rifleman’s library. Very, very well done instructional video in my opinion.
In the first DVD there is a point where they are working on some fundamentals when one of the students has a small problem. While one of the instructors is helping him fix the problem the instructor says something, while not an exact quote, to the effect of “I rode the little bus to school and didn’t see you on it, should you have been on the little bus with me?” I found this funny to say the least as well as a unique way to get a point across with some humor. It wasn’t a put down it was a way of saying that I have made the same mistakes. I liked it. I liked it so much; I am stealing it and using it myself!
Well anyway I have two days to put together or finish a presentation that needs to be to the meeting organizers for publishing in the program packet. Then maps to be done for some soil testing, some soil test to deliver, some bills to send out, some bills to pay, and then the county Farm Bureau annual meeting tonight. That is just today.
The rest of the week doesn’t look any slower either and at some point I have to get some of these CCA credits out of the way. They are such a pain anymore.
Well, after about a three month dry spell, its raining. We have had an inch and a half in the last 24 hours. Two inches in the last 48 hours. Plus, there is another storm front coming tonight.
The rain has help lift my grumpy spirits, but the cold air is keeping them from getting too high. The cold air and wind go right through me anymore. But I am grateful for the rain.
Thanksgiving is tomorrow. We have a lot to be thankful for this year. Good crops, good prices, no major sickness, no major breakdowns or disasters, and that is just the big blessings, it doesn’t count the smaller everyday blessings we have had this year.
I hope to spend some time this weekend working on my Farm Futures speech and getting ready to hit the CCA self study classes to get my points out of the way.
Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!
Well, its official. I have been invited to speak at the 2011 Farm Futures Farm Management Summit in St Louis, MO on Jan 4 and 5.
My session will be: Building the best team for your farm. From consultants to a board of directors, how much outside expertise do you need, or can you afford? Here’s some advice on determining the best way to manage consultants, advisers and boards for your farm.
I am very honored to be asked to speak at this event. I have attended this meeting for three years now and consider it to be the premier farm management meeting of the year. I would consider it a mini TEPAP. The speaker panel is just awesome each year. Great Aggies like David Kohl, Mike Boehlje, Dick Wittman, Moe Russell and Danny Klinefelter come to share and teach.
So make plans to attend in St Louis this Jan 4-5. I will post a link to the agenda and registration site when it is posted.
Three unrelated events into one topic today: Crop Insurance. As I start to type this I realize that this might take a while. I also realize that some of the visitors to this site won’t care. I also realize that it might take, you that are interested, a while to see how all three of these events fit together. Hang with me……….
First off, the issue of Farm Journal that I received in the mail on the 18th of March had an article on using Enterprise Units in place of Optional Units for crop insurance. It was a pretty good article and may have been useful to many a farmer, if the editors or publishers had some fore-thought and put it in an issue that arrived prior the to crop insurance deadline on March 15.
Then, event two, this weekend I got my issue of Prairie Farmer. On the cover is a small block of comments by three individuals who are featured inside. Emerson Nafziger, U of I crops and extension educator, makes the following comment: “We have half a million acres of wheat that weren’t planted. They’ll have to go to something, so I don’t think well see corn and bean acres go down this year.“ That folks is a comment for the “Big Red Truck File”. Yea, half a million acres of non-planted wheat is going to get planted to “something”. Want to bet to what? Beans Emerson, that’s what, beans!
No, it has nothing to do with the agronomics of beans vs. corn. It has nothing to do with the possible returns right now on beans vs. corn. It has everything to do with the possibility that those half million acres are prevented planting acres on crop insurance. Corn is a “first crop” and you can’t follow a first crop (wheat) with a first crop and get your full insurance payment. 99% of farmers will take the “guarantee” of the crop insurance PP wheat and then plant beans, a second crop, and get full insurance coverage on that.
Hang with me because we are going to tie this all together with #3.
The third event is a conversation I had with a farmer friend who for anonymity purposes we will call Sam. I don’t have any friends named Sam so were safe with that one. I have a sister named Sam, but that’s another story for another day. Anyway Sam doesn’t read this site, he is technology challenged so to speak, which might be part of the problem.
Back to Sam and our conversation. Sam has a problem: Sam doesn’t know much about crop insurance. Part of Sam’s problem is his agent or I should say former agent. See, Sam views crop insurance the wrong way. Sam doesn’t see that crop insurance pays. The result is that his agent, in my opinion, just sold Sam a policy based on cost and not benefits. And Sam has never had the benefits, the pros and cons, the reasons why or why not, the what-ifs and if-nots and forward selling opportunities explained to him in a timely, concise, coherent and plain English manner that would allow him to understand that when crop insurance pays you the most, is when you don’t collect on it.
You don’t buy home owners insurance and then pray for a fire so you can collect, do you? In the same vain you don’t buy crop insurance and hope for a crop failure. The insurance is a tool, a risk management tool, that allows you to market and conduct business on the farm knowing that if things end up in the tank, your going to get compensated for the loss. NO, your not going to get rich, your not going to be as good off as if you had raised a crop, but your not going to go broke.
The three events fit together here: For some reason there are many, many people who believe that decisions for crop insurance on spring seeded crops are made between the 1st and 15th of March. ????? What the ……….? Why can’t the crop insurance agents (in general), educators and media get it through their heads that they can do some meeting and planning with their clients, students and readers/listeners and potential customers prior to the deadline of 15 March?
Mind boggling to me!.
Why can’t they explain that your choice of insurance might influence your choice of second crop, if you can’t plant?
Why can’t they explain all of this in plain English?
Why is it that coffee shop talk, most often by fellows who have no clue themselves, is viewed as the gospel on such a serious topic?
Because of a lack of communication, farmers either don’t buy crop insurance because it doesn’t pay; don’t buy the right coverage because they don’t understand the policies and programs of each type of insurance; or they listen to “Fred” at the 1000 acre club table at the coffee shop and report the corn as prevent planted and then plant beans because Fred told them he did that before. (yea, happened last year………)
And in the not to distant past, I was “one of those guys” who was looking at what it paid. Not anymore. There is too much risk in the business. There are too many unknowns. Having a risk management plan and studying and analyzing that risk management tool is more important, in my opinion, than choosing which corn hybrid, or how much N to use, or if you should trade iron or buy the next farm. Without crop insurance, the right crop insurance, your one crop failure away from never having to worry about those other decisions ever again.
Luckily I have a very good agent who communicates with me on a regular basis and we engage each other to make each other to think and study prior to March 15. We play “what ifs” and “why not” and” how come” and “here’s why” and sometimes I am wrong and sometimes he is wrong, and we will think again and try it again. And when we get done, I know what I have, why I have it, what it will or will not do for me and a peace of mind to go out and market and conduct the business of farming knowing that I have a safety net under me.
Just in case………….not in hope of.
I spent some time on Friday afternoon being questioned at my daughters third grade class. They have some type of thing were the kids parents come in a talk about what they do for a living. So I got to be a farmer Friday. Not that I am not a farmer the rest of the time, I am, but I got to answer questions from the kids on what it is like to be a farmer.
I am not use to this type of thing. Usually I have a PowerPoint with 40 some slides and have a prepared topic, know who is speaking first and after me, so that I can tailor my speech to flow with the meeting. There was no PowerPoint to be made and there was no flow to this. It was more like stand-up comedy. Really. I was even told to “dress” the part so I just came from the shed where I had been working on a couple pieces of equipment. I think they might have been expecting a guy with a straw hat and a pitch fork, but they got a flannel shirt and a grease encrusted Pioneer hat.
Of the things that were asked: How do you get paid? Do you work on your own equipment? What color tractors do you have? What do you grow? Does Morgan help you on the farm? and more of the same type only worded slightly different.
What did I learn: That chickens are mean, that everyone knows someone who has a green tractor, everyone knows someone who has a red tractor, that chickens are mean, that horses grow on farms, that chickens are mean, that everyone has ridden a four wheeler in some farmers field and that everyone knows someone who has a mean chicken.
Somehow there was a anti chicken theme that emerged from the kids. I am not sure where that came from.
So I did my good deed for my daughter, promoted agriculture, learned that chickens are mean and identified a whole bunch of suspects for the police who have may have ridden their four wheelers through my canola fields.
Book-em Danno!
Hey, other than too many bullet points, the CCA meeting at Rend Lake Resort, put on buy Illinois CES wasn’t too bad. Other than a couple of talks that really didn’t flow good with the rest of the meeting, there was some pretty good info passed, even if I had already heard most of it before this year.
Good job guys! Just how many more times this winter do I get to hear Emerson?
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